That's why they play the game

I decided that I was going to pick the winners in the football games because I wanted everyone to know that I was a super-genius. I learned a valuable lesson: if you want to gloat about being a super-genius, it is wise to first verify that you are a super-genius.

I have watched many football games, and I have read columns by learned football scholars, and I have strong opinions about which techniques will lead to success, and about the relative importance of cheerleaders. With football forecasts as with dating advice, it is wise to consider the past record of the source before you wager based upon their counsel. Last week, my prognostications (prognostication is a fun word) were twice correct, and twice incorrect. (It would be impolite to discuss my rate of success in other speculative endeavours; instead let me say that you are far better off with my football advice.) With that in mind, let’s get to the picks (home team in capitals).

(Oh, and no one explained this to me, and I do not want you to be similarly benighted. The game is given a ‘line’ by oddsmakers – the oddsmakers estimate who they think is going to win the game, and by how many points. In the case of the Seattle-Washington game, Seattle is heavily favoured to win. In order to give people some motivation to wager on Washington, the oddsmakers say that it will not count as a win for Seattle unless they beat Washington by 10 points or more. It’s like when I play basketball against Daytona Splendor – we usually play to ten and I spot him six. For gambling purposes, Seattle is spotting Washington a 9 point lead. If, as in the case of the New England game, the line is 3, and the Patriots lose by exactly 3 points, the bet is declared a ‘push’ – no one wins and no one loses.)

SEATTLE (-9.5) over Washington – About the only interesting angle in this game is that Seattle is in Washington, but this is a road game for the Redskins, so we can also say that Washington is in Seattle. You can go ahead and read that a couple of times.

Game Note: Sometimes, for vanity or intimidation, a player’s profile will “gild the lily” as they say. “The program lists him at 220,” the announcer might say, "but he looks closer to 250 to me, and I’ll tell you, he hits like he weighs 280!” The program lists Mark Brunell as 35 years old, but he looks closer to 50 to me, and he runs like a man who has misplaced his wheelchair.

Game Note 2: Shawn Springs (who was ejected last week after spitting on another player) will be permitted to play. There were fears that his criminal trial for a weapons violation (specifically, pointing a loaded gun at someone during an altercation; he was charged with “assault with a weapon and simple battery.”) might interfere with the game, but the courts granted a continuance. I think we can all agree that justice was served, and that Mr. Shawn Springs is a class act.

INDY (-9.5) over Pittsburgh – I really don’t like Peyton Manning. I love it when he loses. It is not going to happen this week. Happily, it is going to happen next week.

New England (+3) over DENVER – If there was a word that meant the opposite of confident (disconfident? unconfident?) I would use it to describe this game. My heart tells me that the Patriots are a slightly better team, but my heart also recommended making an emotional investment in Katie Holmes (Katie, if you’re reading this, we can work it out. I don’t care about What’s His Name…). Ultimately, the choice came down to Jake “the Snake” Plummer or Tom Brady, and I am reversing my long-standing policy of “back the quarterback who looks most like hobo” and taking the three-time champs on the road.

CHICAGO (-3) over Carolina – Employing a complicated statistical analysis, I have determined that in the second round of the playoffs home teams are the prohibitive favourites (home teams are 49-11 in the second round since 1990). The Bears are the home team. They have the inexperienced quarterback, the rookie kicker, and the Panthers looked good destroying Eli Manning, but how good to have to be to beat a Manning in the playoffs? (I thought it was funny when the announcers were predicting that Eli would bounce back, reminding us that big brother lost his first playoff game too. Which would be encouraging, if Peyton had blossomed into a proven playoff performer. But he has blossomed into a full-fledged suck, and that makes me very happy, every year. And will make me happy again. Not this week; next week.) Anyway, I think that the Bears will win. But last week I was wrong. Twice.